Chapter 14 – Emerging Technology
“The future ain't what it used to be.”
—Yogi Berra
Twenty years from now, people will look back at the blogging tools we used today and smile at how quaint they were. What will have replaced them? We haven’t a clue. Technology’s future is always filled with too many surprises. Twenty years back we saw prototypes of telephone headsets that looked like band-aids we would attach beneath our ears, letting us speak and hear through vibrations. We remember VRML technology, which was going to enable holographic versions of the people we were talking with to climb out of our computer screens and chat with us in our living rooms. These of course never happened, while so much of what we use everyday was undreamed about by most people two decades ago, including a ubiquitous Internet, WiFi camera cell phones and, of course, the iPod.
During just the six months of 2005 when we were writing Naked Conversations, applicable technologies, such as RSS and podcasting were exploding. Some have already changed our story and will change it more by the time this book becomes available. Others show great promise but are still awaiting final assembly. We’ll get to all of them in a moment, but first let’s make a brief visit to the Internet Continuum.
From Surf to Search into Syndication
In a little over 10 years, the Internet has blown through its first two phases of mass use. In late 1994, we entered the Age of Surf. Web browsers let us visit multiple Internet content sites. People were fascinated as they bopped around from one place to another. The more people surfed, the more businesses built sites to visit. Like Godin’s purple cows, the first site of nearly every category seemed remarkable at first, but in a few short years, most of them felt pretty much alike. The Internet had promised interactivity, but it turned out that it was difficult and expensive to keep updating sites, so once built it remained unchanged for long periods of time, perhaps forever. Many served as nothing more than static online brochures and were as remarkable to read as a train schedule.
During the Age of Surf, search engines were generally useless. You would request a needle and receive a haystack. Then a couple of Stanford kids came up with Google and the Age of Search arrived. Modern search engines are indeed remarkable, usually delivering the information people want to the top of the results pile. Still, there remain inefficiencies, particularly when you are trying to find the most current information. Also, the current generation of engines are good at finding what companies have to say about themselves, but not what people have to say about the companies. Looking for updated information has been tedious, requiring you to scan page-by-page to see if each page has been updated since your last visit. The average person can visit and examine about a dozen sites in this way in an hour and it is not joyful labor.
Blogs and social media are now fueling a new Age of Subscription. Instead of you going to the information, it comes to you. Instead of just having access to what the company has to say about itself, you can see what people have to say about the company. When the occur, updates are fed to you as news breaks. Blogging has fueled this change, but the enabler is RSS, the syndication technology and its full significant implications are just being realized.
Most people already know about RSS and blogs. Briefly, RSS lets you subscribe—and unsubscribe— to or from almost all blogs. When something new is posted to one of the blogs you track, the label on your subscription folder turns bold, so you clearly see there’s an update, saving you from having to go to a website and scan it. When you open a folder, you see a series of headlines, with the new ones also in bold. Some don’t interest you and you skip right past those to the ones that do. You never leave your email client during this process, another time saver.
All this time saving adds up. If previously, you could visit and tediously scan a dozen websites, now RSS lets you power scan perhaps 100-200 in an hour, increasing what you can monitor by at least tenfold. The blogging-obsessed, like Scoble, who tracks more than 1300 RSS folders regularly, aggregate an enormous amount of information.
Searching with RSS
The full promise of RSS becomes clearest when you see what the new RSS search engines like IceRocket, Bloglines, Technorati, PubSub and Feedster can do. If web search engines of today extract needles from haystacks of information, then the new RSS search engines deliver diamonds from coal mines and lots of them.
For example, let’s suppose you are just edging your way into the market for a new car. Twenty years ago, you started reading ads and asking friends about what they drove and liked and whether they got good deals and service. You could read 2-3 magazine reviews and maybe a consumer report. Web search engines increased your options. You could find more research than ever before. You could buy from new alternative online sites and even find the Kelly Blue Book value of your trade in vehicle. Let’s suppose, what with environmental considerations and the price of gas, you want to get a new hybrid car. But you don’t know anyone who owns one. The RSS search engines will let you see what people all over the world have to say about the cars you’re considering. You might see comments on the dealers near you. And you no longer have to treat the information you harvest from the Internet as a frame frozen in history. You get updates delivered every time someone has something new to say on any topic that you’ve told the search engine to watch on your behalf. In many ways, this is like having the personal online agent that 20 years ago, forecasters said we would all be using today.
RSS search is an area where there is great competition. In addition to the five we mentioned there are numerous new ones emerging and considerable speculation that Yahoo!, MSN and Google will soon join the fracas. When you have that level of competition, innovation abounds. In RSS search there seem to be new features add almost daily. While these companies continue to duke it out, end users keep on winning.
Spilling out of the Blogosphere
But RSS capability is not limited to the blogosphere. Almost any content page on the web can be RSS-enabled and more of them are doing so every day. BBC and the New York Times have RSS on news pages, allowing you to subscribe for home delivery into an RSS folder. The next generation of web browsers including Firefox, Internet Explorer and Apple Safari will sense where RSS “feeds” are on web pages and allow you to subscribe with a single click, giving you all updates from that page, from that point forward and ending when you are no longer interested. These facts are significant as to how people and the entire Internet are likely to interact in the near future.
Likewise, there are numerous handy little applications becoming available all the time, each of which makes the Internet a faster, easier place to get what you need. RSS Auction notifies you when a particular product is being auctioned at a particular price on eBay. At Yaywastaken.com, Sean Nolan offers RSS feeds to notify you about books that interest you when Amazon.com offers either new or used copies. The site performs similar services for Overstock.com bargain hunters. At Ben Hammersley’s Dangerous Precedent, you can use his free RSS code string. Add it to your FedEx tracking number and receive updates as your FedEx parcel winds its way toward its destination. Such new efficiencies are emerging fast and we assume a great deal more are on their way.
Sharks Circling the Syndicate
Unfortunately, where there is innovation, you will inevitably find direct marketers circling around until they can bite into that two percent that seem so consistently susceptible to their “amazing offers.” Direct marketers are salivating over RSS because ads can be sent out using it directly or can be embedded it into other people’s content. Such attempts have already started and we do not know how effective they have been to date, but we are certain such attempts will become increasingly aggressive and more sophisticated.
The good news is that you can just say no to direct marketing and the senders can’t do much about it. Unlike email, RSS lets the receiver, not the sender, to decide when subscriptions will terminate. The sender, at least so far, has no way to uncover who has subscribed. You never register. The sender does not capture your email address, and when you decide to unsubscribe, the sender has no way to send you something new and unwanted as direct marketers relentlessly do with email. He or she has no information on you to sell to other database marketers.
In fact, what we like best about RSS is that it recalibrates the playing field, changing the tilt from the company to the user. The customer chooses when and if to start a relationship. Through RSS, the customer gets to watch you and decide if he trusts you. The customer can make the company go away at any point and for any reason. In our hybrid car search, the customer knows more about how the car dealer operates before he or she ever steps foot into the showroom.
This new equation doesn’t mean a company loses. If a company elects to trust prospects to make the right decisions, more are likely to become customers. If a company is transparent on how it operates, and shows its trust of employees by letting them blog or otherwise directly converse with customers, more people will trust it. More will become, not just new customers, but company evangelists as well.
Into the ‘Podosphere’
After Dave Winer and Netscape compromised to give the world RSS 2.0, Winer created an additional feature that lets people subscribe to audio blogs, or podcasts. This was partially a result of collaboration with Adam Curry, the former MTV celebrity VJ, who simultaneously developed a software application downloader called iPodder to work with the new Apple device. With the two new enhancements, Curry produced the Daily Source Code , the first podcast on Aug. 13, 2004. No one knows how many people were listening at the time. Less than a year later, he had nearly 100,000 subscribers, according to Citizen Spin . In the same timeframe, C/Net estimated seven million podcasts were transmitted. This is a rate of emergence considerably faster than text blogs.
A watershed innovation was found in an upgrade to Apple Computer’s iTunes that allowed iPod users to directly subscribe to RSS feeds. The result was that many podcasters saw their traffic quadruple overnight. By summer 2005, iTunes was offering over 3,000 programs and had become “podcast central.” Podcasting’s growth is spawned also by integration with text blogs that tell you when a new podcast is available and where you can find specific audio content.
There are business implications in two directions: (1) Curry is among several producers who are proving you can make a business of podcasting, by building networks of them. (2) Businesses have a new medium for reaching mass audiences and have several options of how to approach it.
Curry has created the Podcast Show Network. Along with the Daily Source Code, he produces 35 programs, reaching a collective audience of several hundred thousand listeners daily. He said he has been profitable from day one using a traditional media network advertising model but has taken in $8.5 million in venture capital to finance rapid growth. He will also tinker with how sponsorship works. Why? “Because ads suck. The stuff is boring and people are tuning out,” he told us. He said commercial and radio ads work on two factors: human emotions and redundancy. For example, when you're watching TV and the program reaches its climax, you can be certain that the program will segue into a commercial before you get to see the exciting conclusion. Ad redundancy is even worse. “I hate this fact, but the guy who gets elected president is the one whose campaign broadcasts the most ads and repeats them the most often,” he told us.
Curry is working on ways to use advertising less intrusively. For example, when we talked with him he was preparing to do a “back scenes” podcast on a new Spike Lee movie, in which the film producer would compensate Curry for the promotional benefits while Apple Computer would compensate Podcast Show Network for making the podcast available exclusively through iTunes downloads. There will be no direct advertising in the podcast itself and Curry is certain listeners will appreciate the eliminated intrusions.
Curry has first mover benefits in podcasting, but he is far from alone. There are numerous pioneers attempting to aggregate programs and grow. Along with at least a dozen blogosphere denizens, ABC, CBS, NBC and NPR are all early players. Why all this early excitement? Because those who make forecasts are outdoing themselves predicting just how big podcasting will soon be. The BBC, which is experimenting with about 20 podcasts of their own, estimates there will be 56 million Americans listening to them by the end of 2010. Forrester Research predicts there will be 12.3 million households listening to podcasts in 2010. These numbers don’t exactly match up, but they indicate a consensus that there will be a whole lot of people listening to podcasts over the next few years.
Just Give it Away
But does advertising have to be the support spine? There are other options and for companies wishing to reach out to either narrow specialized audiences or broad general consumer listeners, these may prove the wiser course. Doug Kaye, a successful serial entrepreneur argues that businesses may be wiser and ultimately profit more if they just give podcast content away.
When he was authoring “Loosely Coupled, the Missing Pieces of Web Services,” in 2002-3, Kaye realized the people he was interviewing knew a great deal more about web services than he did, and he would write a better book if he could stay out of the way of what his subjects had to say to his audience. That’s hard to do as a writer, and he soon realized it would be easier and more effective if you record and somehow transmit the voices of these experts. After Curry made the first podcast, Kaye soon followed by podcasting his Loosely Coupled interviews. The experiment gave birth to IT Conversations which grew into a network of tech-related podcasts. By August 2005 he also was producing about 35 programs, all addressing technology community audiences.
When we interviewed him in early August 2005, IT Conversations was using sponsorships as well as Kaye’s pockets to survive. But our sense was that his heart and mind were already pumping on his vision for “IT Conversations 2.0” a concept in which citizen-podcasters would record what people had to say from the dais of public gatherings everywhere, on all topics. Then IT Conversations would produce the audio record of what people in the front of the room told live audiences on a given day and in a given place. Program moderators would be severely limited and there would be no interviews—sort of open source podcasting—not because anyone could add or alter it—but because anyone could participate. And the podcast would be open to anyone who searched by topic, place, speaker conference, or whatever. It would be available tomorrow morning or a hundred— or thousand— years from now.
But why should business care about open source podcasting at all? Well they already do, but in a way that Kaye thinks narrowcasts their focus. He told us that most enterprise efforts treat podcasting as just a new iteration of streaming media, an Internet broadcast system that has been in use for years. The corporate ROI is found in database marketing. A distinguished speaker is hired to speak at a company-sponsored gathering. The talk is recorded and distributed over the Internet for free—with a catch. You must register, by giving your name, email and perhaps a demographic fact or two, before you can download the stream. Usually the registration form also includes a pre-checked little box, often unnoticed, that gives the company permission to send you additional information, which will be used for direct marketing purposes. A company determines the success of the broadcast in pure ROI terms— you deduct speaker and production costs from subsequent sales to determine ROI. From Kaye’s extensive experience, he estimates that at best an enterprise might entice 10,000 people to register to listen, garnering perhaps 200 actual transactions plus some resale value to the registered user database—making inadvertent participants susceptible to receiving email they never requested, promoting products they don’t want for the remainder of the time they use that email address.
Make it up in Volume
Kaye thinks that this is short sighted, costing companies in both goodwill and sales. By replacing registration requirements with free RSS subscriptions, a company will increase the number of listeners by as much as tenfold. If a much smaller percentage of listeners elect to purchase something from the company, the sales are still likely to be greater than the 200 that the previous model offered. If just one percent voluntarily purchased something, the result would be as much as 500 percent over the forced registration model. According to Kaye, companies have started to come around to this way of thinking. He didn’t have any case studies, yet. After all, his thinking was still a work in progress, when we spoke with him, but he told us he had recently helped BMC Software to start BMCTalk, a hosted RSS-enabled podcast that covers subjects ranging from the finer strokes of golfing to human integration problems that follow a corporate acquisition. More recently, he advised Salesforce.com on how develop a similar program that was under development when we talked to him.
An example of how it would work for the enterprise that indicated how open source podcasting might work involves his recording of speakers at PopTech, a popular conference that blends technology and sociological thinking. IT Conversations recorded Blink author Malcolm Gladwell’s talk Gladwell was well-received by 500 mostly paying attendees. Over the next 10 months, 67,000 people listened to the podcast version. Gladwell spoke for free at PopTech, even though elsewhere at the time he was receiving as much as $40,000 per speech. By August 2005, his asking price had gone up to $60,000 and he was among the most sought after speakers on the circuit. His new book is significantly outpacing his earlier earlier book in sales. Meanwhile, even though PopTech has raised its registration rates for it 2005 conference, advance registration was running ahead of schedule. Is there a measurable quid pro quo here? It’s not provable. But one can assume that both Gladwell and the conference producers have not been hurt by just giving it away.
Large companies often host distinguished speaker series at which luminaries on Gladwell’s level are often invited to speak. Would a free unregistered podcasts help people’s perceptions of the company? Might they influence a potential employee, unaware that this quality perk was part of the employment package? We think so. A podcast lasts virtually forever and the older it gets, the more prominent web search engines might make it. There’s another way a company can use a podcast to its benefit: broadcast the voices and words of its best and brightest employees. Not only is a company-sponsored spotlight a great internal morale booster, it would reveal to the world the quality of your team and that you’re proud of them. It would make clear that real people work for your enterprise and they have passion and authority about what they are doing. That just might be more valuable than 200 direct marketing sales.
Now, See It
Text and audio blogs have enormous implications and can be produced and enjoyed in mobile situations. But there is nothing quite like seeing a speaker. And if you cannot be there when a particular event happens, the power of video is not subject to debate. Video has been slower to emerge than the former two forms of social media, in part because it is more expensive and difficult to produce. Watchers need to be static. People may listen to podcasts while driving and jogging, but we just wouldn’t encourage people to do that with video blogs or vlogs as they are starting to be called.
Undisputedly, Scoble’s day job as Microsoft’s Channel 9 puts him in the center of what is currently the world’s most popular business video blog, with 1.9 million unique visitors per month. While Channel 9 incorporates wikis, forums and considerable text content, Scoble interviewing the company’s most accomplished developers is statistically the main attraction. Some of Scoble’s videos have been downloaded more than 100,000 times.
Other companies have started to inch toward video blogs. A global media company has told Scoble they are planning to launch a video blog that emulates the Channel 9 model. Amanda Congdon produces RocketBoom, an ad-backed, highly creative and unpredictable video blog that is drawing 60,000 daily visitors, with no market effort behind it except the word of mouth evangelism of exuberant fans.
But to really take off, the high cost of producing vblogs,has to come down, and the issue of storage needs to be resolved. Vlogs are both storage space hogs and bandwidth stranglers. But one company promises an inexpensive solution to the former problem, and another claims a free resolution to the latter.
Serious Magic , a Folsom California software startup company has a whole suite of low cost video communications tools in use by about half the Fortune 500 according to marketing director Michelle Gallina. USA Today uses their products for training and Hyatt Regency incorporates the technology to produce videos that entice companies to use Hyatt meeting facilities. But we’re more excited by the promise of things to come. CEO Mark Randall told us, in February 2005, his company has technology that “enables everyday people to produce professional quality videos.” We met Randall at Demo, a prestigious conference where start ups get six minutes to launch their products live on stage. Randall gave a great, fast-talking demonstration of VlogIt!, the company’s $100 video blogging software. The product was scheduled to ship in Fall 2005. Another new organization, OurMedia, is a nonprofit that offers “free forever” online video storage space, apparently eliminating storage and bandwidth barriers for users. Together we see a new, low-cost business channel of communication getting into position for rapid emergence.
News and Blog Views
The number of emerging innovative software and service offerings to enhance text blogging are too numerous to mention, but one with potential watershed implications is Memeorandum, a service that is still operating from a server in the bedroom of former Intel developer Gabe Riviera. Memeorandum, as far as we can tell, is the first technology to link together old and new media, offering single screen views of prominent headlines from a traditional media merged with commentary from popular bloggers, thus ending the ongoing, often petty, feud between the two, to the benefit of the end user.
So far, Riviera has only pumped out a version for mainstream news. But he has shown us previews of a great deal more to come, including political and technology versions. His possibilities are almost limitless.
Memeorandum may spell the end for “link blogs,” currently prominent in the blogosphere. These, quite simply, are blogs that link to other blogs, adding sparse new content of their own and intended to make the linker both influential and popular. Because Memeorandum, uses algorithms to provide results, just like Google does, it automates linking and puts it all onto a single page infinitely faster than a human could possibly do it. While this may bode badly for currently prominent blogger ratings, it has potentially great end user benefits, perhaps as significant as Google was to search. We see personal Memeorandums somewhere down the line, in which you’ll be able to hand-select a few thousand of your favorite blogs, stick them in the Memeorandum engine, and get one page of the hot stuff in those blogs. Talk about personalized news services.
Find it Fast
Mobile Blogs are simply blogs posted from handheld devices. Most are no more than a snapshot taken by a camera phone with a few words in the caption, usually incorporating instant messaging shorthand. But location-based data laid over mobile blogs have very significant implications and mapping has become an area where giant players like Amazon.com, MSN, and Google have been racing to outdo each other with innovations being served up every few months. Amazon’s A9, for instance, took a car with several cameras installed on it up and down streets in many major cities in the U.S., a technique long in use by desktop cartographers. But Amazon linked it into A9’s Yellow Pages feature to let you see just what the sushi restaurant looks like inside. You may be thinking of eating there tonight or you may be passing by it just as you are getting hungry. At some point, you can expect that previous diners will be able to post blogged reviews of their experiences, to encourage or warn off future customers.
Google, is currently in the lead with maps that are incredibly easy to scroll in a web browser, and they indicate the location of restaurants, movie theaters or shops in the area you requested. As frosting on the cake, they also provide satellite photo views of the map area, and have opened up their technology to allow non-Google developers to add in new applications of their own. There are some working on how to insert live data on traffic, for example. This would be more current than the AM radio helicopter report that often reports on areas bigger than your topographical interests and reports on accidents that have already been cleared, The Google traffic map would be personalized to where you are, and advise you on alternative routes.
Maps also can also be populated with location-based ads that are actually useful to travelers looking for the local Starbucks or movie theater. News can also be attached, according to Larry Larsen, a technologist at Florida-based Poynter Institute, the R&D arm for the American journalism industry. He has shown us a prototype of how blogs and news might overlay onto maps, so you can avoid traffic snarls, fires, crime scenes or terrorist attack sites.
MSN’s Virtual Earth team includes Chandu Thota, who developed BlogMap, which lets bloggers see where you are blogging from and the location of bloggers nearby. Virtual Earth is MSN’s mapping service. In the first week the service was available, 100,000 people downloaded BlogMaps, Thota told us. He added that near-term innovations will include the ability for bloggers to post directly onto maps.
Having blogs on maps portends a whole raft of changes. You could subscribe to blogs in your neighborhood, for example. Or, you could write a review about your favorite sushi restaurant and leave that right on a map for others to find.
Tag, You’re Found!
Tagging is one of those simple little innovations that has begun to make big improvements in finding what you want faster and easier. It’s about the same as putting a label on a file folder or sewing your kid’s name into her clothing before she goes off to camp for the summer.
Let’s say you’re attending the 2006 Consumer Electronics Show in Las Vegas in January and you want to watch other blog reports that are coming out of the show. You can use an RSS search engine, requesting results for “CES” and get back a haystack of stuff, including websites and newspaper reports from years past—probably more than you wanted. But, if everyone who was blogging at the one you were attending, tagged their posts with the same label, say “CES 2006,” your search result would be much more satisfying.
Tagging has particular relevance for photos and other multimedia posts that are sparse on text, making it difficult for search engines to find them without tags. Neither Google nor Technorati for that matter, can look at a photo of a lighthouse and know it’s a lighthouse—unless the creator tagged it accordingly.
Technorati’s tag page was tracking 1.9 million tags by August 2005 a few months after it started. The RSS search engine company was collaborating with Flickr and Buzznet , to online photo services as well as Delicious and Furl , two linking services. We spoke with a companies in pre-launch mode, planning to join this tag sharing network. One planned to launch a service in late 2005 that would allow people to use tags to find themselves, friends and places they were looking for anywhere that was connected to the Internet, including in PCs where their owners were willing to participate.
But the implications go still further. Let’s integrate tagging with mobile blogs on cell phones and mapping. The combination would fulfill the promise of “geo-tagging,” allowing companies and people to tag objects on a map and mobile blog the information, eventually making it easy to find people, places, products, hospitals or gas stations anywhere, and read the reviews of people who were there before you. There are numerous companies of all sizes working on final assembly of the myriad pieces to this puzzle.
Your Whole Life Before You
Perhaps the most ambitious project that we saw, during our research for this chapter was in Microsoft’s San Francisco labs where Jim Gemmell and Gordon Bell , father of the DEC VAX computer, were working on MyLifeBits, a system that allows you to keep your whole life stored in one place – video, photos, blogs, and other digital detritus go into MyLifeBits. Optionally, another Microsoft research team, this one in Cambridge, England, is working on SenseCam, a small, motion-activated digital camera that you hang around your neck. When something of note happens, it starts clicking away, so that entire lives can be photographed, tagged, or geo-tagged and posted or stored in your own computer. You keep the moments that matter. You share with people who care. But MyLifeBits has more pragmatic implications. Research with stroke victims seems to indicate that photos help them reconnect with memories that the stroke seemingly erased. The two teams are also studying to determine if such life blogging tools actually help the rest of us learn as well. But what is most relevent we think is that a simple PC can now store your entire life in video. MyLifeBits is already available.
The Big Picture
From the time of the legendary dotcom bomb, through the ensuing years, it appeared to many observers that not much was happening in technology, but in fact it has. Blogs and other social media have exploded. Once again, technocal innovations are relentless and significant for huge numbers of people and commercial enterprises.
The technologies we discuss here are the tip of the iceberg of what is emerging and what will emerge. What is relevant is that these technologies will once again how change how businesses communicate as well as how information is found and shared. The next technical innovation may surprise us, but the directions of social media are no longer in question, or so it seems to us.
The big picture is clearer than it has been in many years. We have entered into a new era of communications.