Social Media & the Road to Ruin

NPR is running a series about the US, called "The Road to Ruin." At any other time in my life, this would be pretty sensationalist for public radio, but it seems to me, to be pretty spot on for the collective feeling of people in the US right now. I spoke at a conference last week, and am pretty much known for being positive in most everything I say, particularly when it comes to social media.

I inserted a slide titled "Social Media and the Recession." I said that there was an elephant in the room, a skinny and ugly elephant and its name was "The Economy," that the people in the room were probably as distracted by economic events as I was and knew they were going home to face words like "cutbacks," and "non-essential." While one person immediately disagreed with me, I saw lots of nodding heads.

These are the most difficult of times. Suddenly and in unison, the American people are in a somber mood. It has nothing to do with terrorism or war. It has to do with loss of jobs and homes and retirement funds. Anyone who has any discretionary funds is not about to spend it on a shiny new car or computer or trip to Vegas or Disneyland.

Our economy has put on the brakes. Spending is stopping. We all know it and we all wonder what it will do to us.

Once the shock has worn out and the reality has worn in, we will start to look at details of what it means to ourselves and our businesses. I am probably among the very few who at this moment is pondering the future of social media and how it emerges through the wormhole of rapid economic compression.

I think that social media will be part of the solution for businesses that survive the coming changes. I think it will be more apart of the everyday lives of everyday people all over the world. I think it is about to become essential, rather than discretionary to both household and enterprise budgets.

Let's look back for a moment. In that last economic depression, certain items flourished. Movies, radio, theater and the arts, books and so one. They cost little and they allowed people to spend some time escaping. It was all passive. When people were not doing that, they were talking to each other, over backyard fences, on street corners and in parks.

Times have changed but people don't as I keep saying. We are pretty much the way we were when we were grunting and gesturing in caves. During these troubled times, more people will have more time on their hands and a great many of them will spend a significant portion of it talking to each other online They will use social media not just to talk, but as a vehicle for creative expression and as a source of entertainment.

That brings us to business--enterprises of all sizes, but particularly global business. I believe there is about to be an enormous reexamination of the cost/benefit of a great number of traditional marketing programs--advertising, PR, conferences, trade shows, dead tree mailings and so on. They will be acknowledged as being even more inefficient in hard times than they have been in good times.

Yet business still needs to talk with customers, prospects, partners etc. They will look for a faster, better, cheaper way and that will bring them to social media. There simply is no more efficient way to talk with customers.

This will also be true for other large institutions. Religious organizations, political organizations, non-profits and so on will go to social media for the same reason old-time politicians went to funerals and Irish wakes--because that's where the people are.

If I can close with a single note in this very pessimistic post, it is that I believe that today, or tomorrow or sometime soon, we will have started along the road--not to ruin as NPR calls it--but to recovery.  It is going to be a long, slow road and it starts in a curvy, windy hazardous stretch, but economies are cyclical and the American economy will recover, as will the global economy that we are currently damaging.

But we will most assuredly recover and we have, we will find that we have entered into the Conversational Age, that Scoble and I predicted at the end of Naked Conversations. In it, people will have greater say and companies will run more efficiently. They will be more agile because social media allows them to talk--and listen--to their constituencies.

Comments

[Zee from WeDoCreative]

Great article Shel and I would definitely agree on the fact that this really could be what we'll all look back on as the dawning on a new age - the conversation age.

[shel israel]

Zee,
Write "RT" or retweet then @twittername Then the post.

[frank]

I love reading your posts because you make me think differently than i would if left to my self.

Do you think it takes something like this to get large companies to begin really thinking and using social media as a real part of their business on a day to day basis??

thanks!!

--
http://twitter.com/franswaa

[shel israel]

Not certain what it takes to get companies to start really thinking about social media as you ask. Usually it is a combination of immediate and longterm issues. Most companies these days are at least thinking through social media.

[Terri Zwierzynski]

Hi Shel,

A very insightful post. As the Dow has been plunging and talk of recession/depression swirls, I've been trying to remain optimistic, reminding myself that a down market is a great time to be investing. Your perspective on how people behave during a downturn...that they will seek solace, escape and even entertainment through connection with others...gives me even more optimism, as a recent convert to the use of social media.

Thank you!
Terri Z

[Alrady]

great article and have to agree with much of it.

[Mark Sinclair]

Great post, Shel. Couldn't agree more with your comment: I think that social media will be part of the solution for businesses that survive the coming changes.

[Graeme Thickins]

totally agree, Shel -- I said last week in our weekly podcast at www.Minnov8.com that social media is absolutely "a technology for the times"

cheers,
Graeme

[Gail Bronson]

Shel,

While your commentary is cogent, I think, no, I know, that integration of social media into the business lives of doctors, lawyers, bankers and other traditional professionals may take longer than you anticipate. I constantly see this refrain in emails from these folks: "Who has time for this stuff...it's irrelevant to our business!" Regardless, thanks for a good read! Gail

[KDPaine]

I know that the wooden toy maker in Northern NH who had been trying to sell his product by driving around to craft shows, but who signed onto Twitter and found a nationwide distributor, would certainly agree with you. I think the biggest thing that will happen is that those companies, small and large that embrace social media will come out of all of this much faster than their competitors who remain stuck in the old command and control mentality.

[podcampsingapore]

I am currently taking a social media course at my university and have really come to appreciate the emergence and effectiveness of new media and web 2.0. i think that you are absolutely right, we have entered the Conversation Age.