Is Facebook starting to fade?

Let me begin by saying I am a Facebook fan.  I have no business connections with the company and to be honest I regret that.

But in the last few weeks I've noticed that:

• The number of blogger complaints about Facebook is on the rise
• The amount of spammy groups, notifications and messages coming my way is on the rise
• The number of new groups that interest me is on the decline
• The number of times I hear "Facebook" in conversations is on the decline, while the number of  Twitter mentions continues to rise. This matters.  All sites compete for the exhaustible research of attention.

Is this a trend.  I have not a clue.  But it is an early warning sign.  Every time something experiences phenomenal adoption, whether it be Facebook of today or Hula Hoops of yesterday, it takes time to sort out whether or not the phenomeon is a trend or a fad. Personally, I think Facebook is a trend, but it needs to pay attention.

First, Facebook needs to keep refining itself, and there has been very little change in the site since I joined it several months ago, Second, it needs to respond to very real user concerns on privacy and ownership as Risto Linturi has expressed. Facebook, like any other company, will find it's reputation can rise or fall quite quickly if t fails to listen and respond to legitimate criticism.

Personally, I think Facebook remains in the most promising position of any new company I know. Social Networks is the killer app of social media and Facebook is the most enjoyable place I have yet seen to meet people with whom I share common interests. But change is in an accelerated mode these days, and if Facebook does not pay attention, it could very easily find it's position more vulnerable than it appears to be today.

Comments

[Gammydodger]

I am glad to read your post here - Facebook offers such hope, particularly the way the entire mechanism has a certain democracy baked in (as was demonstrated by a 60,000 strong 'online march' in protest of Beacon).

Facebook is clearly under pressure to realize revenue potential rather than its potential for social change, so how can the two be reconciled?

Facebook is a microcosm of a web-democracy, if Facebook can resolve this, then the web can follow to play its due role in the world in addition to being an online commercial shipping lane.

[Justin Thorp]

At least in my circles, Facebook is definetly not starting to fade. People still use it and gush over it as much as before. I've had more co-workers, who i'd never expect to be on Facebook, pop up there.

FB Beacon is a GREAT idea... i just think it was poorly executed and got a bunch of bad press. But just like there was a backlash to FB Newsfeed and that turned around, I think people over time will see the wisdom behind FB Beacon.

Also... I don't think FB has had any earth shattering new features lately... there hasn't been any big new investment news lately so the Web 2.0 echo chamber has had nothing to write about except for gripes about FB.

[Maya Norton]

I think there is a bit of divide here. Perhaps Facebook is no longer experiencing exponential growth within first adapter, English language society's such as the US, Canada, England, and Australia, but research shows extreme growth in the Middle East and southern Europe among others (namely in Turkey and Israel, the #1 and #2 fastest growing networks).

Do you think that said first adapter networks are nearing saturation point and coming to experience more normative growth patterns? Interested to hear your thoughts.

Maya Norton

The New Jew: Blogging Jewish Philanthropy

[Leona Laurie]

I've been wondering the same thing. It seemed to me that Facebook's recent eclipsing of MySpace in any personal or professional coversation I was having was based in large part on its less corporate, less marketing-heavy feeling. The way it's being ripped for advertising offenses lately has really dinged its reputation. I'm hearing more about College.com lately, and I've been impressed with some of the strides LinkedIn has made in getting with it.

I think we might be close to a point where there isn't ONE most popular social networking site due to saturation, though. At least until Google gets on board.

[Beth Kanter]

We're between points 2 and 3 on Gartner's Technology Hype Cycle
http://beth.typepad.com/beths_blog/2007/12/has-facebook-en.html

[Glenn Gow]

There have been more headaches than benefits lately for Facebook users, and that doesn't bode well for Mark Zuckerman. Beacon's potent revenue promise has made him forget that Facebook is a two sided platform. By serving advertisers to the detriment of users, he's created a platform war. If this continues, trend watchers will remember Facebook with Friendster. I wonder if he's heard of Ning?

[Laurel Papworth]

Interesting points but could you please clarify "Social Networks is the killer app of social media ..."
In my book, social media is a small part of social networks, not the other way around. Social Finance, Social telecommunications, social not-for-profits (nope, not a blog or consumer generated media in sight) are what will change the world. Social Media is just the herald of the change. See more on (Social Networks are MUCH more than Social Media)

I also think that people should stop comparing Facebook to MySpace - we CREATE on Myspace/YouTube/Flickr and we SHARE on Facebook. Myspace (content) vs Facebook (distribution). You don't blog on facebook do you? Plus Facebook is a gated community (few to few) and Myspace is usually one-to-many. we should compare depth of content sites with depth of content sites, and discover/share sites with other discover/share sites. MySpace is picking up membership as Facebook introduces people to social networking- no way will you get 3 million views for a video on Facebook. That's not it's purpose.

If Facebook really faces a competitor outside of it's own milieu, it's Twitter. Twitter does a better job of distribution of links (social media distribution) than FB and it includes an extensible layer of synchronous communication. That's 'chat' folks :)