Rubel thinks blogging and Naked may have peaked

"The Flack" Peter Himler posts an interview with my friend Steve Rubel who comments that books such as Cluetrain Manifesto and Naked Conversations may be old hat and that blogging itself may have peaked in terms of numbers.

Maybe so. Maybe so, but I think not.

In fact, Naked has surprised everyone by the steadiness of it's sales.  The book is just short of its first birthday and sales, we strut to say, are still pretty solid. I ave noticed that sales have moved geographically away from American urban centers while taking off in English speaking communities of Asia, Europe and Canada. This trend seems to overlap with many historic technology adoption routes.

Steve and I tend to hang out in the front of a comet that has a Long Tail to it and he just might have been blinded by the light in his comments to Peter.

In our neighborhood world he's absolutely right. Blogging is an over-discussed topic. If you talk about Kryptonite bike locks in our neighborhood, people will roll their eyes heavenward or point to their throats and make gagging noises. But ours is a small neighborhood and this is a very big world despite current levels of connectedness.

I will be better persuaded that it has peaked when my wife's employer tells her a blog would be useful in her marketing efforts to attract more foster parents in Santa Clara County, California, or when shoppers at Edelman's most famous client stores know about great or shoddy deals because of what they read on a customers blog or YouTube clip.

What I do see and have written previously about is the normalization of blogging. Like movies, telephones, recorded music, television, PCs, trains and so on the real impoact comes after the mania, when everyday people start adopt technology to do everyday things.  Blogging will pass its peak only after it becomes an everyday tool worldwide and  we have some road to travel before that happens.

Comments

[Mike Driehorst]

Exactly. While I've yet to read Peter's post (but will definitely do so tonight), Rubel's comments seem very near-sighted.

If blogging has peaked, then its end is near.

The vast majority of the population -- even the majority of the online popular -- are vaguely familiar with blogging at best. It has not peaked. Blogging and social media in general are still very much in their infancy. We're all just babies here, no matter how much we tout our expertise.
Mike

[Doug Karr]

It seems to me that blogging is more tidal... blogs growing and receding. There's almost a pace to their growth and death, as bloggers work harder or go away.

The statistics show an ever-increasing number of blogs coming online. As well, companies haven't really adopted blogging yet - I read a stat that said that 84% of Fortune businesses had no blog affiliated with their company.

That's a tidal wave waiting to happen!

[Dave]

I agree with you Shel. Here in Phoenix Arizona, the small-business capitol of the country, business owners are just now discovering blogs. I gave my 'Why your business should have a blog' presentation last week to a full house.

[Paul Morriss]

I can see blogging coming into the lives of more "ordinary" people, rather than just those who are technical, or big users of the internet. I magazine I've been receiving for years (http://www.matthiasmedia.com.au/briefing/) has an article this month on starting a blog.

[Jeremiah Owyang]

It has peaked, but in the tech industry.

It has just started to see the crest in the business community however. Social Media is becoming a line item and every executive and product team will need to understand this tool as customers reach back.

The big swell is how the web is changing the world, bringing us closer, smaller, faster and more efficient. Global Neighborhoods will tell this story.

There can be many peaks in a mountain range.