Is Web 2.0 Dead?

Between Steve Rubel and Publishing 2.0, the crash of Yahoo and the 30 point plus drop of Google's stock; the nastiness over Gather, and misgivings about Flock, you would think that the Web 2.0 bubble popped before it ever inflated enough for anyone to make an obscene fortune from it.

Like I was saying a year ago about blogging, I am convinced that it has all just begun.  Web 2.0 is a transformative thing and I say that on a day when I've lost more money in my holdings in Google, Yahoo and other stocks to be in any mood for gloating.

What has happened is what should have happened much more often during the dotcom era. Some air has been taken out of the tires.  That's the safe thing to do when you are speeding along a road that gets too hot.  Steve Rubel is right, there isn't enough advertising to go around for all the companies that want it.  Expectations for Yahoo were very high and they failed to make it despite reporting record revenues and healthy margins. This says more about expectations than it does the soundness of Yahoo and where it is going.

There aren't too many players in Web 2.0.  There are too few truly exceptional players, and there is a paucity of teams that are solid enough, stable enough, visionary enough and tough enough to go the long route. As Publishing 2.0 points out, it's time for some chafe to get separated. tech for the masses is being promised by technology enthusiasts who need to listen more closely about what the masses want and what levels of ease are necessary to get them to rapidly adopt.

What is happening is that the rules of the marketplace are setting in.  This is a good thing. I am holding my stock although a day that burst my personal balloon back in the year 2000 has flashed through my memory several times today.

But the stock is not what is important nor are the scores of companies that will jump on the stage, strut and fret then disappear.  What's important is that all the components are coming into position for a new surge in technology's relentless forward push.

And many companies will flourish.  And many people will prosper.  And the right number of advertising dollars will be invested at the right number of companies to support a world who will be better off for what Web 2.0 promises so many people in so many situations in so many places.

Web 2.0 isn't dead.  It is just barely being born.

Comments

[Scott Karp]

Shel, I completely agree that Web 2.0 is not dead, and that it's just getting started -- I think the question is which applications will become mainstream blockbusters like Google and which will be successful based on a devoted following of more tech-savvy users (and which will deservedly go bust). I think Flickr could be a huge mainstream success. Digg, and even the more acclaimed Newsvine, strike me as much more geeky.

You're also right that a reality check at this stage of the game can only be a good thing. The conversation should not be Web 2.0 bubble vs Web 2.0 bust, but rather a more critical look at how applications might be successful with different audiences and different business models.

[tom]

I certainly hope Web 2.0 hype is dead!

There's nothing to it other than a group of companies holding a convention and trying to whoop up some venture capital and sell out. These guys are snake-oil salesmen who have time-travelled straight from the end of the dot-com bust era.

The sooner these guys die off, the better

[shel israel]

Tom,
You seem to know more about this than anyone, allowing you to issue such a blanket dismissal and attack on the integrity of so many companies. Could you share your full name with us, and share why you hold the view you are expressing?