Bob Wyman on Microsoft and the future of blogging

Bob Wyman (a former Microsoftie and founder of PubSub) has posted an interesting rumination on the future of blogging and Microsoft's impact on the medium. There's a lot of projection in this piece but what I found most interesting, with respect to this project, was the following thought:

One impact of the recent news may, in fact, be that Scoble's book about business blogging stays current for longer then I recently suggested that it might. The entry into this space by Microsoft, and the inevitable flushing out of smaller players, will tend to stabilize what we've got and ensure a more moderate pace of development in the future. This can only benefit writers like Scoble who will find that the slowed pace of new developments ensures that their writings are relevant for longer then they otherwise would have been.

What's your take? Do you think MSN's web-based RSS aggregator and Spaces, the acquisition of Groove and other possibilities (like an integrated RSS feature in IE 7) will have the effects Bob predicts? Or has blogging reached sufficient critical mass to prevent any one company from "taking over" this tool category? My personal opinion is that tools including TypePad, WordPress, NewsGator, FeedDemon, My Yahoo! and Bloglines have established more than enough market share to keep the space "open".

Dave Winer thinks Microsoft's behavior in the space has been exemplary.

Robert has posted his thoughts.

Comments

[Steven Streight aka Vaspers the Grate]

I think Google has more dominance than Microsoft in the blogosphere.

Google basically started the personal blog revolution, and greatly facilitated the journalist and political blog movement, with the introduction of Blogger.

So far, most of the blogs I am aware of and visit are Blogspot, WordPress, Typepad, and Moveable Type. Only a few are Microsoft Spaces. I am not prejudiced against MS Spaces, just haven't encountered that many in my web explorations. That's just my idiosyncratic experience.

Has MS ventured into podcasting, wikis, glogs, or virtual online musical instruments?

Has MS ventured into password-protected online journals?

Password-protected journals are the new wave of personal blogs, to ward off stalkers, child predators, identity theft, harassment, etc.

See my recent post "Dangers of Personal Blogging", the sequel to my controversial "You Are Not A Blog" post. Just click on/select my name in this post. To leave the post URL here could seem "spammy".

[Steve Shu]

Lot of questions buried in here. I wouldn't think that MSN Spaces would have much of a near-term effect on the life span of a book on corporate blogging. Wasn't MSN Spaces tool targeted at a different audience than the corporate blogging market?

As for whether MSN Spaces can have an effect on flushing out other players in the market, the penetration of some of the other firms is pretty significant, so I would think that for 2-4 years those companies are safe from the features you've mentioned. Not a time to get complacent though - the technology space is always very volatile and the landscape can change rapidly.

[Marc Orchant]

Steve: I'm inclined to agree that Spaces, in and of itself, shouldn't be seen as a direct factor in corporate adoption of blogging. But gaining over 2 million users in the brief span of time they have is meaningful in two ways: it demonstrates MSN's reach into their customer base and it suggests a repeat of the way Messenger (and other IM services) transmogrified from a pure consumer application into a business tool.

I have learned to never underestimate the power younger adopters of new technology (i.e. teens and college-aged young people) can have in a short period of time on how we work. Consider that many of the corporate managers the book hopes to speak to have children in these age groups. One of the more interesting dynamics I've observed in recent times is the impact kids, who are often far more comfortable with new technologies than their parents, can have as the older generation witnesses the actual usage and benefit of those technologies.

As an example, my son (13) has influenced his grandparents and aunts and uncles to adopt Skype. Now my siblings (and parents) use this relatively new tool to conduct some of their business. I can see a manager/parent reading his child's Spaces blog (perhaps looking at a photo album or looking for ideas about what music to get for a birthday present) and having an epiphany about how the tool could could impact his work group, project or company.

[Jozef]

"How did the great rivers and seas gain dominion over the hundred lesser streams? By being lower than they." Lao Tzu

Speaking of domination, I could not help myself ;P

[Marc Orchant]

Thank you Jozef for that perfect quote. You are certainly one of the most literate and well-read commenters in my experience. ;^)

[shel israel]

Marc,

Welcome to the Red Couch. Could you just move over a little bit? Robert's crowding me a bit. Very provocative first post, generating some great feedback. I tend to think Robert is accurately depicting where Microsoft is going,and that trying to dominate the blogosphere is a bit like trying to shovel water with a fork. As far as moderating influences, all markets slow as they get larger. It is the nature of markets.Finally, if Scoble's book is to have enduring tenure, it will be because it provides enduring thoughts.

[Jozef Imrich]

Substitute "damn" every time you're inclined to write "very;" your editor will delete it and the writing will be just as it should be.
-Mark Twain

Ach, Marc

I try my best to stir Shel and Robert up; usually I am met with forgiveness ;D

If Web is the best of all possible worlds; Blog Or Be Damned (sic) has the best of all possible editors - as opposed to preditors ;P

PS: BTW, in case latest graphs on blogging have not entered your radar screens czech this out:

From the founder and CEO of Technorati's posting today: Technorati is now tracking over 7.8 million weblogs, and 937 million links. That's just about double the number of weblogs tracked in October 2004. In fact, the blogosphere is doubling in size about once every 5 months. It has already done so at this pace four times, which means that in the last 20 months, the blogosphere has increased in size by over 16 times. TechnoRATi

[Steve Shu]

Marc,

Great points. Always helpful to look at things from multiple points of view.

I guess other food for thought is that we haven't really seen how the market is going to partition out in terms of being able to serve different parts of the blogosphere.

For example, to bring back your point about the IM space, we have started to see differentiated IM players that focus on the security, compliance, financial services markets, etc.

As another example and reading between the lines a bit, you have companies like Jotspot and Socialtext being tested out at Steve Rubel's blog from the point of view of PR folks.

Probably still a land grab phase right now, but some companies may go for scope plays, some more niche plays, some low-cost plays. Or it may be a two-tier approach where players try to better fortify in a blogosphere niche (e.g., corporate blogging).

I probably would want to review my business notes on Netscape though (and adapt my thinking to how Microsoft has changed some of its strategies in terms of not building certain things, partnering, etc.).

[Steven Streight aka Vaspers the Grate]

Who is going to proclaim the negative aspects, the dark side of blogging?

Who is going to warn us of identity theft, stalkers, child predators, fake blogs that boost SE ranking of target sites, anonymous blogs with malicious intent, etc.?

Who is going to explain the bloating of the blogosphere accomplished by automatic programs creating thousands of pseudo-blogs, for dubious purposes?

What about all the non-English blogs?

Blog Count blog reports that Korean blogs now, or will soon, outnumber English language blogs, making Korean the official Blogospheric language of dominance.

Blog Count reports current estimate of almost 12 million Korean blogs. Small servers Technorati doesn't track.

How many blogs are worthless vanity blogs?

How many blogs have been abandoned but still are counted?

The blogosphere is not full of all good news. There is also a lot of bad news associated with blogging.

[Marc Orchant]

Steven: Isn't all of this "dark side" just a mirror of the web in general? What about all of the non-English web sites? How many worthless vanity web sites are there? How many abandoned web sites are there? Is there something special you see happening with blogs that isn't mirrored by the web in macrocosm?

[Steven Streight aka Vaspers the Grate]

I'm not sure how relevant all this is to Shel and Robert's book, but yes, the blogosphere is a lot easier for non-technical individuals to enter than the web site realm.

I don't think it's quite as easy to automatically generate multitudes of drone web sites existing just to link to a target site.

And web sites are generally not as personal or family oriented as are many personal blogs.

Nothing wrong with a site being non-English, of course. Just wanted to remind everyone that we can be Anglo-centric in our praise and critique, forgetting about the non-English bloggers, though they do show up, especially Japanese blogs, on the tracking sites like Technorati, Blogstreet, Daypop, etc.

Sorry if these concerns are not really On Topic. I've had misgivings about that post.

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